How Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Marco Bauer
Marco Bauer

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