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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.